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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.