Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.

Corey Mullen
Corey Mullen

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