🔗 Share this article From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro. A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.” These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.” These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”