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For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a strong stance on Ukraine. Following delivering statements of "significant repercussions" in August in case Russia's president continued obstructing peace negotiations, the former president finally introduced substantial penalties on Russia's primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially hindered the Russian leader's ability to fund his aggression in the region.

However, via his latest detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU involvement, the former president has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's initiative would effectively benefit the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal effectively compromise that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his business experience, the former president persists to consider the war as a mere territorial dispute, like handing Putin a section of Ukraine's land will satisfy the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not simply about occupying a charred swath of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious desire to eliminate it so it stops functions as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the accountable governance that Putin's growing dictatorship prevents them.

Border Concessions

Although freezing in status the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would require the nation to abandon all of Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting Russia with land that its troops have been failed to occupy in more than a decade of fighting, this concession would render Ukraine's defensive positions critically undermined.

The area is the location of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that represent a essential barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these fortifications, giving Russian forces a open path to the capital if he subsequently decide to restart the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a move that would facilitate future hostilities easier for Russia, the plan would require the nation to cut the size of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Notably, the initiative places no such limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's attempts to characterize the nation's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "Every extremist belief system and actions must be opposed and forbidden." As if to highlight this point, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that Putin endanger his dictatorship by conducting elections in Russia.

Security Assurances

Admittedly, the plan includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in regulation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". However given that Putin has violated equivalent agreements in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in the region to the government – why should the international community trust Russia now?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on external defense commitments. While the proposal warns of a "immediate coordinated defense action" should the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the particulars range from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only block the nation alliance membership but also prevent Nato members from deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the reassurance force, reportedly headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Russia from restoring his weakened military, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional side agreement apparently would grant the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "major, deliberate, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. Yet different from a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of Western powers, including Trump, to react militarily to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not